OK, Liam Fox resigned. The reasons for his resignation are a bit messy, so let's talk about it when we find out more. What is an important question now is who becomes the next Defence Secretary.
Generally, it has been reported that Cameron and Clegg are wary of reshuffles. The current Cabinet is carefully balanced - between LibDems and Conservatives, and also within each of the parties. Cameron brought some prominent Thatcherites such as IDS and Liam Fox, some very pro-business people like Philip Hammond, some 'wets' like Ken Clarke. Liam Fox leaves a hole; a full-scale reshuffle would hinder the balance in the cabinet.
On of the options is to bring somebody from the backbenches, an experienced backbencher with ministerial experience. Malcolm Rifkind could be the man (he has got experience as Defence Secretary and Foreign Secretary) - but he is much more pro-European than Fox, and his appointment would increase the unrest in the right wing of the Conservative party.
David Davis is also an experienced MP, his views closer to that of Fox's. His appointment would be in some ways a PR success for Cameron - appointing your key opponent could be seen as statesmanlike. But Cameron already fired Davis from the Shadow cabinet once - why would he re-appoint him? Davis was quite rebellious recently, voting against tuition fees increase etc.
What if a reshuffle does happen? As I am writing this, rumours grow that Hammond could be the new Defence Secretary. He can be seen as more or less neutral to the internal balance of the cabinet. Someone will have to become Transport Secretary - but this is not a top job, so it is not that important for Cabinet balance. It is, however, desirable for the government if the new Transport Secretary does not have reservations about HS2, because this policy is already controversial.
There is one final point to be made. Some of the Tory grassroots are very keen on getting David Laws back to government; but he could only return as an additional LibDem minister, which would not be that popular with Tory backbenchers (and a PR disaster - 'Torys can't even find ministers among their own rank').
UPD: According to Sky, Philip Hammond will be the Defence Secretary, Justine Greening the Transport Secretary. Don't know who the next Economic Secretary to Treasury will be, but I would put my money on Greg Hands.
Generally, it has been reported that Cameron and Clegg are wary of reshuffles. The current Cabinet is carefully balanced - between LibDems and Conservatives, and also within each of the parties. Cameron brought some prominent Thatcherites such as IDS and Liam Fox, some very pro-business people like Philip Hammond, some 'wets' like Ken Clarke. Liam Fox leaves a hole; a full-scale reshuffle would hinder the balance in the cabinet.
On of the options is to bring somebody from the backbenches, an experienced backbencher with ministerial experience. Malcolm Rifkind could be the man (he has got experience as Defence Secretary and Foreign Secretary) - but he is much more pro-European than Fox, and his appointment would increase the unrest in the right wing of the Conservative party.
David Davis is also an experienced MP, his views closer to that of Fox's. His appointment would be in some ways a PR success for Cameron - appointing your key opponent could be seen as statesmanlike. But Cameron already fired Davis from the Shadow cabinet once - why would he re-appoint him? Davis was quite rebellious recently, voting against tuition fees increase etc.
What if a reshuffle does happen? As I am writing this, rumours grow that Hammond could be the new Defence Secretary. He can be seen as more or less neutral to the internal balance of the cabinet. Someone will have to become Transport Secretary - but this is not a top job, so it is not that important for Cabinet balance. It is, however, desirable for the government if the new Transport Secretary does not have reservations about HS2, because this policy is already controversial.
There is one final point to be made. Some of the Tory grassroots are very keen on getting David Laws back to government; but he could only return as an additional LibDem minister, which would not be that popular with Tory backbenchers (and a PR disaster - 'Torys can't even find ministers among their own rank').
UPD: According to Sky, Philip Hammond will be the Defence Secretary, Justine Greening the Transport Secretary. Don't know who the next Economic Secretary to Treasury will be, but I would put my money on Greg Hands.
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