YouGov/Sunday Times Poll

First of all, welcome to my blog. My name is Alexander Petrov, and this blog will be mainly about UK politics, but by no means confined to it.

Today, I would like to discuss the newest YouGov/Sunday Times poll. Since the key points are always magnificently analyzed by Anthony Wells, I would like to point your attention to some less important issues.

Nigel Farage has been spreading a lot of optimism about UKIP's performance recently. What is true is that UKIP has been consistently polling above its 2010 result - at 4, 5 and sometimes even 6-7%. So where, according to this poll, does that support come from? What is quite predictable is that there are some disenfranchised Eurosceptic conservatives - 6% of those who voted Tory in 2010 have switched to UKIP; this result is quite predictable, but there are questions regarding its sustainability - some of these voters are in marginal seats, and may think twice before risking letting in Labour or LibDems. A more peculiar result is that 5% of former LibDem voters have switched to UKIP; even more peculiarly, 15% have switched to Torys. To a great extent, this vindicates what Farage has been long saying about them - that a significant fraction of LD voters have no idea about the party's policies and just use it for a protest vote; the high result of LIbDems in 2010 elections did not reflect any kind of a Pro-European swing or a demand for a 'middle way' in economic policy - it simply reflected the existing frustration with the two main parties.

One fifth of Lib Dem voters now intend to vote for more right-wing, more Eurosceptic parties. To me, it only confirms that LD support was inflated, and, whatever happens, there is no way the LibDems will recover by 2015. 4% of LD voters intend to vote Green - also quite plausible given that Greens have finally managed to get an MP. Given the total share of Labour vote will almost definitely recover, Caroline Lucas will need those votes to keep her Brighton seat.

There does not seem to be a clear regional pattern in UKIP support, but there is a clearer age pattern. Whatever Farage says about growing popularity of UKIP among young people, the poll clearly shows that the bulk of UKIP supporters are 60+ or at least 40+. The Conservatives also have the highest support among  60+. People between 18 and 24 overwhelmingly support left parties - 55% labour, 3 % Green, and also the only age group with Respect support different from zero.

While it is considered normal in all parts of Europe that young people tend to support the Left of all sorts and species including and up to various radical Trotskyst groups, I think it is a worrying sign, first of all, of high youth unemployment, and second, of the complete lack of entrepreneurial culture in the UK.

The 40-59 group seems to have a slightly higher support for the Left than 25-39, but they are broadly similar (40-59 a bit more Eurosceptical).

Summing up, relative to the 2010 election,

•  Conservatives stay approximately at the same share of the vote, 86% of their 2010 supporters still ready to vote for them; some voters defect to UKIP, but this is compensated by an inflow of former LibDem supporters
• Labour Party is picking up LibDem voters (up to a third of them); its losses seem to be insignificant, and there is no clear pattern in them
• LibDems are not picking up any votes anywhere but are losing them to all sorts of people - first and foremost to Labour, but also, surprisingly, to Conservatives, to UKIP and to Green Party (also to SNP in Scotland, but the break-up of the poll is insufficient to see that)
• UKIP is gaining Conservative and LibDem votes, to a very little extent Labour, but its main vulnerability is that its support is confined to older age groups
• Greens seem to manage to attract some LibDem voters, and this may be crucial for Caroline Lucas in 2015 election - if she fails to attract enough LibDem voters to secure reelection, her party will lose momentum and will possibly have a limited scope for recovery

This is my first attempt to blog on this topic, so please I welcome any constructive criticism.